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Likely future pandemic agents and scenarios

Most countries, including NZ, had pandemic plans pre-COVID-19 that focused on an Influenza Pandemic – but they were largely silent on non-Influenza virus pandemics. Future pandemic preparedness needs to more explicitly consider a range of possible pandemic agents or pandemic scenarios.

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Principal Investigator
Distinguished Professor Nigel French
Massey University
Public Contact
Distinguished Professor Nigel French
N.P.French@massey.ac.nz
Project Timeframe/Status
2023-04-10 - 2023-07-07
Completed

Whakarāpopoto Rangahau Summary of Research

The purpose of this project was to: 

  • Identify and characterise agents that are most likely to cause future pandemics/Public Health Emergencies of International Concern (PHEICs) and possible scenarios resulting from such events. 
  • Capture the key features that need to be considered during the interpandemic period (i.e. preparedness) and the multiple phases of an extant pandemic/PHEIC (i.e. response).  

 

 

  • Provide a framework and essential material for the preparation of a pandemic plan that is fit-for-purpose now and into the future. 
  • Identify capabilities that are needed to aid rapid decision making in the event of a new pandemic/PHEIC. 

Te Hiranga a Rangahau Research Impact

Most countries, including NZ, had pandemic plans pre-COVID-19 that focused on an Influenza Pandemic – but they were largely silent on non-Influenza virus pandemics. Future pandemic preparedness needs to more explicitly consider a range of possible pandemic agents or pandemic scenarios.

Te Niwha

Kairangahau Research Personnel

Research Team

Distinguished Professor Nigel French
Massey University

Professor David Hayman
Massey University

Professor Michael Plank
Massey University

Professor Jemma Geoghegan
University of Otago

Associate Professor Amanda Kvalsvig
University of Otago

Dr Howard Maxwell, Te Whakatōhea, Te Whānau Ā Apanui me Ngāti Porou 
University of Otago

Professor Sue Huang
ESR

Dr Kristin Dyet
ESR

Dr Fiona Callaghan
Te Pou Hauora Tūmatanui/  the Public Health Agency

Dr Pippa Scott
Te Pou Hauora Tūmatanui/  the Public Health Agency

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Reviewers

Professor Michael Baker
University of Otago

Dr Euan Russell
University of Otago

Ms Te Pora Thompson, Ngaati Hauaa
Te Niwha

Executive summary cover
RESOURCE

Executive Summary Report

This is the executive summary of the report “Likely future pandemic agents and scenarios: An epidemiological and public health framework”. The report was commissioned to support Te Manatū Hauora, the Public Health Agency and decision makers and partners involved in pandemic planning.

Download summary PDF report
Full report cover
RESOURCE

Full Report

The full report “Likely future pandemic agents and scenarios: An epidemiological and public health framework” and accompanying spreadsheet was commissioned to support Te Manatū Hauora, the Public Health Agency and decision makers and partners involved in pandemic planning to ensure we are well-prepared for future pandemics. This document is motivated by the need for a more comprehensive approach that considers a range of likely scenarios and agents, new technologies, and learnings from the COVID-19 experience.

Download full PDF report

Project Timeframe

Nine weeks

Locations

National

Media Contact

Distinguished Professor Nigel French
N.P.French@massey.ac.nz